Philippines recovery precarious as virus cases rise

Economic recovery in the country can be expected to be among the most uncertain in Asia Pacific due to the continued rise in coronavirus cases and the poor mobility of workers, according to UK-based think tank Oxford Economics.

In a recent brief titled “Coronavirus resurgence dims some recovery prospects,” the research firm said the Philippines, along with Indonesia and India which are still reporting elevated numbers of cases, has so far been performing the worst in the region in terms of containment and workplace mobility.

“The situation remains precarious in India, Indonesia and the Philippines, with infections accelerating after restrictions were prematurely relaxed, leading to a pause or reversal of reopening plans. These economies remain highly vulnerable, given weak public health infrastructure and limited fiscal resources,” Oxford Economics said.

The region is experiencing a major resurgence in some countries such as in Australia, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Japan — which were able to control the outbreak early on during the crisis.

Because of better mobility of workers, however, these economies along with China, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand can be expected to recover faster.

The report noted that Singapore and Malaysia are also making progress in containment with the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases falling, leading to loosened restriction and improved workplace mobility.

Mobility of workers is now increasingly used as an indicator of economic activity in light of the lockdowns, Oxford Economics said.

“In the Philippines, Metro Manila and nearby provinces imposed a second lockdown in early August, leading to a further decline in workplace mobility. In Indonesia, rising infections have also delayed a further easing of social distancing measures,”

Metro Manila and other growth centers Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite and Laguna have been placed under strict lockdown anew from Aug. 4 to Aug. 18 after health workers called for a two-week timeout to recuperate and seek reinforcements from the government.

Public transportation remains limited in keeping with social distancing measures, making it a challenge for workers to get to their places of employment.

Source: Czerina Valencia (The Philippine Star )

Source: Peso Economics